Barbara Klump and colleagues published the analysis in Science in 2021. They collected reports of bin opening from residents across greater Sydney and Wollongong and tracked the number of suburbs where it occurred. Records grew from three suburbs in 2018 to dozens within two years.
The spatial pattern is what carries the argument. New occurrences appeared disproportionately in suburbs adjacent to existing ones, radiating outward rather than popping up at random. That is the signature expected of a behaviour transmitted between individuals rather than reinvented independently wherever bins are available. Filmed openings also showed regional differences in technique, consistent with local variants.
A later study documented the other half of the exchange: residents responded with bricks, straps and wedged objects, and their counter-measures also clustered geographically. Calling this an arms race is a useful shorthand, though it should not be read as implying either side is deliberately escalating.